Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Wednesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2435 LANDED 3:26 PM ET, ~20 MIN EARLY

Wednesday, September 30

UA 2435 · MIA → IAD

took off 1:25 PM ET · landed 3:26 PM ET (scheduled 1:10 PM ET → 3:53 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to IAD?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↑ 1pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.16 in

IAD (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2435 · MIA → IAD

Odds over time

How late did it get to IAD?