UA 2866 · SFO → SBA

departs 9:23 PM PT · arrives 10:45 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?

75% chance · ±0 pts +42 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SBA?

On time or early
24%
15–30 min late
57%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SBA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2866 · SFO → SBA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SBA?