Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4005
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4005 · TPA → BNA
departs 4:55 PM ET · arrives 5:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 54%
Fri 10/2 54%
Sat 10/3 23%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.28 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.