Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4005
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 4005 · TPA → BNA
departs 4:55 PM ET · arrives 5:50 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Thu 10/1 56%
Fri 10/2 53%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±7 pts
+17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
4pm departures from TPA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.30 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.