Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4005
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4005 · TPA → BNA
departs 5:20 PM ET · arrives 6:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 54%
Sat 10/3 23%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±4 pts
+22 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
44%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +22 pts in 24h
+22 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
Arrive at BNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to BNA?
On time or early
39%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.45 in
BNA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.