Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4044
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4044 · MDW → LGA
departs 9:40 AM CT · arrives 12:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 30%
Fri 10/2 21%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
26%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.87 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.