Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4044 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 4044 · MDW → LGA

departs 9:50 AM CT · arrives 12:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 9am departures from MDW are usually not late

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.22 in

LGA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling4,600 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4044 · MDW → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?