Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4044
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4044 · MDW → LGA
departs 9:50 AM CT · arrives 12:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 41%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 24%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.80 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.