Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4228
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow
WN 4228 · SFO → BUR
departs 7:40 PM PT · arrives 9:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 37%
Fri 10/2 39%
Sat 10/3 26%
Sun 10/4 36%
Mon 10/5 29%
Tue 10/6 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±4 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from SFO are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.