Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4228
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1
WN 4228 · SFO → BUR
departs 6:50 PM PT · arrives 8:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 46h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 39%
Sat 10/3 26%
Sun 10/4 36%
Mon 10/5 29%
Tue 10/6 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±5 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at BUR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUR?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 40% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from SFO are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SFO that day
↓
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at BUR that day
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
BUR (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.