Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4228 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 4228 · SFO → BUR

departs 6:50 PM PT · arrives 8:15 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±6 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUR?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUR

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUR (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4228 · SFO → BUR

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUR?