Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4285
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4285 · SMF → PHX
departs 6:50 PM PT · arrives 8:50 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 33%
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3 17%
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
29%
chance · ±0 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
29%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
29%
Yes 29%
No 71%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.