Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4285
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
WN 4285 · SMF → PHX
departs 7:50 PM PT · arrives 9:45 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 59h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
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How late will it get to PHX?
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On time or early
63%
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15–30 min late
12%
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30 min–1 hour late
17%
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1–2 hours late
5%
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Over 2 hours late
2%
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Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.