Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4285
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4285 · SMF → PHX
departs 7:50 PM PT · arrives 9:45 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3 17%
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.