Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4402
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4402 · MCO → AUS
departs 6:15 PM ET · arrives 8:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 64%
Fri 10/2 48%
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.