Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4575
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4575 · BNA → MIA
departs 6:30 PM CT · arrives 9:55 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 39%
Fri 10/2 45%
Sat 10/3 28%
Mon 10/5 28%
Tue 10/6 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
48%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at MIA that day
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
6pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.