Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4793
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 4793 · DAL → MSY
departs 9:45 PM CT · arrives 11:15 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 68%
Fri 10/2 58%
Sat 10/3 11%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
65%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
65%
Yes 65%
No 35%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
22%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at DAL that day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 2,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.