Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4793
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
WN 4793 · DAL → MSY
departs 10:45 AM CT · arrives 12:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 69%
Thu 10/1 77%
Fri 10/2 58%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
+17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +18 pts in 24h
+18 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MSY that day
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Arrivals into MSY at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.35 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.46 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.