Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4793
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 4793 · DAL → MSY
departs 3:15 PM CT · arrives 4:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 87%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 56%
Sat 10/3 11%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
74%
chance · ±8 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
74%
Leave 15+ late
66%
Arrive 1h+ late
23%
Cancelled
20%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
74%
Yes 74%
No 26%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
66%
Yes 66%
No 34%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
20%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
20%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 2.6 in of rain forecast at DAL that day
↑
3pm departures from DAL are often late
↑
DAL is prone to delays
↓
DAL is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 2.59 in
MSY (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.