Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4876
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
WN 4876 · SAN → TUS
departs 7:10 PM PT · arrives 8:40 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 48%
Fri 10/2 41%
Sat 10/3 26%
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 29%
Tue 10/6 24%
Wed 10/7 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SAN that day
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
TUS (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 6,500 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.