WN 497 · BNA → DEN

took off 1:49 PM CT · landed 3:01 PM MT (scheduled 1:26 PM CT → 3:18 PM MT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DEN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 1pm departures from BNA are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 497 · BNA → DEN

Odds over time

How late did it get to DEN?