Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 497 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

WN 497 · BNA → DCA

departs 8:30 PM CT · arrives 11:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 533 ft, 0.3 in of rain forecast at BNA that day

↑ 8pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ BNA usually runs smoothly

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling533 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.35 in

DCA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 497 · BNA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?