Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 497
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
WN 497 · BNA → DCA
departs 8:30 PM CT · arrives 11:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 35%
Sun 10/4 21%
Mon 10/5 24%
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±6 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 40% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.