YX 4345 · LGA → RIC

departs 9:29 PM ET · arrives 10:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RIC?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RIC (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4345 · LGA → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?