Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4416
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow
YX 4416 · DCA → EYW
departs 8:33 AM ET · arrives 11:48 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Wed 9/30
Thu 10/1 16%
Fri 10/2 18%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at EYW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EYW?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.7 in of rain forecast at EYW that day
↑
EYW is prone to delays
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
EYW (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.67 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.