Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4416
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
YX 4416 · EYW → DCA
departs 12:18 PM ET · arrives 3:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 26%
Fri 10/2 16%
Sat 10/3 24%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 1 mi, 1.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at EYW that day
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
EYW is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
EYW (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.92 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.