Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4461
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
YX 4461 · LGA → MEM
departs 1:51 PM ET · arrives 3:47 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 24%
Fri 10/2 24%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at MEM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MEM?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MEM (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.