Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4493
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
YX 4493 · RDU → PIT
departs 7:00 PM ET · arrives 8:28 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 16%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 12%
Fri 10/9 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from RDU are often late
↑
RDU is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
PIT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 4 mi Precip none
PIT (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.13 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.