Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4496
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
YX 4496 · RDU → LGA
departs 12:31 PM ET · arrives 2:29 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 32%
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
LGA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 4 mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.