Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4543
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
YX 4543 · DCA → ACK
departs 8:30 AM ET · arrives 10:09 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 10%
Fri 10/2 10%
Sat 10/3 13%
Sun 10/4 12%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at ACK more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ACK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at ACK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ACK?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↑
8am departures from DCA are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at ACK that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ACK (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.