Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4618
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Tomorrow
YX 4618 · SAV → DCA
departs 9:21 AM ET · arrives 11:12 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 15h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Wed 9/30
Thu 10/1 9%
Fri 10/2 10%
Mon 10/5 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave SAV more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 2 mi forecast at SAV that day
↑
DCA is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
9am departures from SAV are usually not late
Weather at each end
SAV (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.06 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.