Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4627 LANDED 8:08 AM ET, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

YX 4627 · DCA → CMH

took off 7:16 AM ET · landed 8:08 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↑ DCA is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Arrivals into CMH at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CMH (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4627 · DCA → CMH

Odds over time