YX 4644 · LGA → LIT

took off 6:07 PM ET · landed 7:35 PM CT (scheduled 6:40 PM ET → 9:13 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to LIT?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from LGA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LIT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4644 · LGA → LIT

Odds over time

How late did it get to LIT?