Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4752
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
YX 4752 · RDU → DCA
departs 8:04 PM ET · arrives 9:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Sun 10/4 50%
Mon 10/5 31%
Tue 10/6 26%
Wed 10/7 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late nan% of the time recently
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 4 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.