Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4776
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
YX 4776 · ORD → CVG
departs 10:00 PM CT · arrives 12:30 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 68%
Fri 10/2 16%
Sat 10/3 14%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 17%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
10pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.95 in
CVG (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.