YX 4784 · DCA → ILM

took off 9:10 AM ET · landed 10:06 AM ET (scheduled 8:53 AM ET → 10:42 AM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ILM?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8am departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ILM (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4784 · DCA → ILM

Odds over time

How late did it get to ILM?