YX 4802 · DCA → SDF

took off 8:56 AM ET · landed 10:17 AM ET (scheduled 8:35 AM ET → 10:31 AM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 13h after departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SDF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↑ 8am departures from DCA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4802 · DCA → SDF

Odds over time

How late did it get to SDF?