YX 5649 · CMH → JFK

took off 12:55 PM ET · landed 2:19 PM ET (scheduled 12:30 PM ET → 2:35 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to JFK?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into JFK at that hour are often late

↑ JFK is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH

Weather at each end

CMH (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.01 in

JFK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 5649 · CMH → JFK

Odds over time

How late did it get to JFK?