Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1202 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 1202 · MIA → JFK

departs 4:03 PM ET · arrives 7:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±5 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 27 kt, 0.6 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ 4pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.63 in

JFK (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1202 · MIA → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?