Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1202 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 1202 · MIA → JFK

departs 4:03 PM ET · arrives 7:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 5:00 PM ET · 47h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±4 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 37% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

JFK (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling6,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1202 · MIA → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?