Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1269 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 1269 · CLT → DCA

departs 10:27 PM ET · arrives 11:53 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±4 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1269 · CLT → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?