Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1718 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 1718 · SAT → DCA

departs 6:40 AM CT · arrives 11:02 AM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 31h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from SAT are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility9.66667 mi Precip1.41 in

DCA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1718 · SAT → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?