Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1718 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 1718 · SAT → DCA

departs 6:40 AM CT · arrives 11:02 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 63h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±4 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, 2.3 in of rain forecast at SAT that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from SAT are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip2.35 in

DCA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1718 · SAT → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?