AA 1836 · DFW → SAT

departs 7:34 AM CT · arrives 8:40 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 8:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
17%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
59%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at SAT that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.11 in

SAT (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling557 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip3.76 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1836 · DFW → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?