Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2802 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow

AA 2802 · CLT → GSO

departs 11:01 PM ET · arrives 11:57 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±5 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GSO?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 11pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GSO

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GSO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2802 · CLT → GSO

Odds over time

How late will it get to GSO?