Schedule: a typical Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2802 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 2

AA 2802 · CLT → GSO

departs 11:01 PM ET · arrives 11:57 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 69h before departure

Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±5 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GSO?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 11pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GSO

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GSO (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2802 · CLT → GSO

Odds over time

How late will it get to GSO?