Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2844SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Yesterday
AA 2844 · PHX → JAX
departs 4:09 PM MT · arrives 11:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
37%chance · ±1 pts+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREVery high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.