AA 2999 · DFW → ORD

departs 5:47 AM CT · arrives 8:13 AM CT

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,167 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from DFW are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility1 mi Precip6.50 in

ORD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.96 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2999 · DFW → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?