Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2999 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3

AA 2999 · DFW → EWR

departs 6:19 PM CT · arrives 10:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±5 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.20 in

EWR (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling9,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2999 · DFW → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?