Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 425 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Today

AA 425 · DFW → CHA

departs 8:01 PM CT · arrives 10:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at CHA more than 15 minutes late?

65% chance · ±1 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to CHA?

On time or early
33%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
26%
1–2 hours late
20%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
5%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 4.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ CHA usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip4.08 in

CHA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 425 · DFW → CHA

Odds over time

How late will it get to CHA?